‘The Little Mermaid’ made $118 million at the box office, but it’s not the billion dollar hit we’re looking for

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It’s the third time this month that a sequel to a big-ticket franchise has managed a modest but modest showing at the box office. “The Little Mermaid” (Disney) is expected to bring in about $95.5 million in three days and about $118 million in four days. The top three movies earned him all but $23 million of the holiday weekend’s total of $162 million, down $15 million from last year.

With this summer season of expensive, familiar movies, the pressure to exceed expectations will be heightened. On paper, this weekend was a very likely weekend to beat 2022. No one expected Mermaid to beat Top Gun: Maverick’s opening $126 million, but the weekend also saw another major movie endorsement. “Fast X” (Universal) entered the second week of the series. Last year, No. 2 was the month-long Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which made $16 million at the box office. “Fast X” grossed $23 million at the box office.

little mermaid
(LR): Halle Bailey as Ariel, Sebastian (voiced by David Diggs) and Scuttle (voiced by Awkwafina) in Disney's live-action The Little Mermaid. Photo credit: Disney.  © 2023 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.

Perhaps more concerning is the comparison to Disney’s billion-dollar 2109 hits “Aladdin” and “The Lion King.” Initial results for “Mermaid” suggest a potential total of about $500 million worldwide. Premarket costs are reported to be approximately $250 million.

FAST X, (Fast and Furious 10), 2023.  ph: Giulia Parmigiani /© Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
“Fast X”©Universal/Provided by Everett Collection

‘Fast X’ fell 66% in its second weekend, a similar drop to 2021’s ‘F9’ (which also benefited from the second holiday). At $500 million worldwide, it would match the F9’s $726 million in a best-case scenario, but that sum was likely limited by the coronavirus pandemic. This time around, the budget is $340 million, but that’s not enough.

By this time last year, it had a summer release that grossed over $400 million domestically. Some upcoming titles still have potential, but time to see improvements is limited.

Disney is doing well with “Guardians,” but it fell just short of $20 million and approaching $300 million in its fourth weekend. Ultimate gross domestic sales could be approximately $375 million. It should exceed $800 million worldwide.

Results outside the top three suggest that theaters won’t be saved by wider exposure. Four new films entered the top ten, three of which were shown in more than 2,000 theaters. However, none of them made more than $5 million in revenue.

“The Machine” (Sony) took in $4.9 million at the box office, followed by “About My Father” (Lionsgate) with $4.25 million, starring Robert De Niro. “Kandahar” (Open Road / Briarcliffe) starring Gerard Butler grossed $2.4 million. All three of his films have the feel of the cliche titles that will appear on his PVOD after the third weekend, which will have a negative impact on the smaller films as the public becomes accustomed to the alternatives. There is a possibility. Likewise, how many parents are expecting The Little Mermaid to come to Disney+ soon? (It’s late summer, really.)

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“You hurt me”Jung Park / A24 Films

A24 opens 912 theaters with Nicole Holofcener’s critically acclaimed (82 Metacritic score) Sundance production of You Heart My Feelings, grossing just under $1.4 million at the box office. rice field. A comedy starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus could gross $3.5 million. Her last theatrical release was her 2013’s Enough Said. Starring Louis-Dreyfus and James Gandolfini, the platform release grossed $18 million domestically.

The year-to-date growth compared to 2022 is 21%, and the full year is expected to fall below $9 million. His four-week streak compared to 2019 stands at 79%, which is about the same for the full year.

There won’t be any specialty titles fresh out of Cannes anytime soon (although most don’t seem to drop). With no reports of new titles and few already-launched titles showing a pulse, the chances of A24’s ‘Past Lives’ (best reviewed movie so far this year) will find a good response next week. It’s wide open.

top 10

1. Little Mermaid (Disney) NEW – Cinema Score: A; Metacritic: 59; EST (Eastern Standard Time); Budget: $250 Million

$95.5 million in 4,320 theaters. PTA (average per theater): $; Cumulative: $95.5 million

2. Fast X (Universal) Week 2; Last Weekend #1

$23.02 million (-66%) in 4,008 (+2) theaters. PTA: $5,631.Cumulative: $107,955,000

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #2

3,940 (-510) $20,000,000 (-%) in theaters. PTA: $; Cumulative: $299.4 million

4. Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal) Week 8; Last weekend #3; also on PVOD

$6,270,000 (-35%) in theaters at 3,148 (-392). PTA: $1,992.Cumulative: $558,882,000

5. Machine (Sony) NEW – Metacritic: 38; EST (Eastern Standard Time). Budget: $20 million

$4.9 million for 2,409 theaters. PTA: $2,034.Cumulative: $4,900,000

6. About my father (Lionsgate) New – Cinema Score: B+; Metacritic: 37; EST (Eastern Standard Time); Budget: $29 million

$4.25 million for 2,464 theaters. PTA: $1,725.Cumulative: $4,250,000

7. Kandadar (Open Road/Briercliff) New – CinemaScore: B+; Metacritic: 52

$2.41 million in 2,105 theaters. PTA: $1,145.Cumulative: $2,410,000

8. You Heart My Feeling (A24) NEW – Metacritic: 82

$1,389,000 for 912 theaters. PTA: $1,523.Cumulative: $1,389,000

9. Evil Dead Rise (Warner Bros. Discovery) Week 6; Last weekend #5; also on PVOD

$1,052,000 (-57%) in 921 (-1,252) theaters. PTA: $1,142.Cumulative: $66.2 million

10. Book Club: The Next Chapter (Focus) Week 2; Last Weekend #4

$920,000 (-69%) in 1,312 (-2,174) theaters. PTA: $687.Cumulative: $16,132,000

Other specialized titles

Movies (limited editions, limited edition extensions, and award-winning releases) are listed by release week, starting with the one released this week. After his first two weeks, only movies with box office grosses above his $5,000 appear on the list.

master gardener (Magnolia) Week 2

$94,300 at 156 (-44) theaters. PTA: $605.Cumulative: $500,892

Sanctuary (Neon) Week 2

$40,638 for 10 theaters. PTA: $4,064.Cumulative: $138,877

blackberries (IFC/Elevation) Week 2

197 (-398) $(estimated) 200,000 in theaters.Cumulative: $1,285,000

Monica (IFC) Week 3

$11,000 for 53 (-39) theaters.Cumulative: $124,500

starling girl (Bleecker Street) Week 3

$31,459 in 114 (+73) theaters.Cumulative: $111,842

it’s not over (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3

57 (-71) $31,488 in theaters.Cumulative: $332,363

Chevalier (Searchlight) Week 6

$22,000 at 85 (-5) theaters.Cumulative: $3,420,000

somewhere in queens (Roadside attractions) Week 6

$17,520 in 32 (-14) theaters.Cumulative: $1,705,000

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