Pure Gasoline Market: Manufacturing Falls To A New Multi-12 months Low

0
2
Natural Gas Market: Production Falls To A New Multi-Year Low


The Climate

Final week

Final week (ending October 2), the variety of cooling diploma days (CDDs) elevated by 6.9% w-o-w (from 33 to 35). On the identical time, the variety of heating diploma days (HDDs) surged by 81.5% w-o-w (from 15 to 26). We estimate that complete “vitality demand” (as measured in complete diploma days, or TDDs) was as a lot as 26.5% beneath final yr’s stage however just one.1% beneath the 30-year common.

This week

This week (ending October 9), the climate situations have cooled down considerably within the contiguous United States. We estimate that the variety of nationwide CDDs will drop by 20.4% w-o-w (from 35 to twenty-eight), whereas the variety of HDDs ought to rise by 22.1% (from 26 to 32). Whole common every day consumption of pure gasoline (within the contiguous United States) ought to be someplace between 70 bcf/d and 72 bcf/d. Whole “vitality demand” (measured in TDDs) ought to drop by 10.2% y-o-y, whereas the deviation from the norm will stay within the adverse territory (-8.4%).

Subsequent week

Subsequent week (ending October 16), the climate situations are anticipated to heat up, however solely barely. The variety of nationwide CDDs is presently projected to edge up by 4.2% w-o-w (from 28 to 29), whereas the variety of HDDs ought to stay comparatively unchanged (at 32). Nonetheless, complete “vitality demand” (measured in TDDs) ought to nonetheless decline in annual phrases (-24.6%), whereas the deviation from the norm will stay adverse (-13.1%) (see the chart beneath).

Supply: Bluegold Analysis estimates and calculations

The newest numerical climate prediction fashions (Wednesday’s short-range 00z runs) agree that, over the subsequent 15 days, TDDs ought to stay beneath the norm (on common) however ought to proceed to pattern upward – see the chart beneath. Nonetheless, there’s presently a minor disagreement between the fashions by way of scale: the most recent GFS mannequin (00z run) is projecting 65.7 bcf/d of potential pure gasoline consumption (on common, over the subsequent 15 days), whereas the ECMWF mannequin (00z run) is projecting 65.4 bcf/d over the identical interval.

Supply: NOAA, ECMWF, Bluegold Analysis

Precise TDDs are presently projected to stay largely beneath the norm till November 14, however not considerably so. Projected TDDs are rising, however at a considerably slower tempo than a yr in the past.

Supply: NOAA, ECMWF, Bluegold Analysis estimates and calculations

General, over the subsequent 15-day interval, complete pure gasoline demand (consumption + exports) is predicted to common 86.3 bcf/d (adjusted for likelihood), which is 0.2 bcf/d increased than a yr in the past. Consumption (7-day common) is projected to lower by -2.4% over the subsequent 7 days (from 71.5 bcf/d at the moment to 69.8 bcf/d on October 14). General, every day pure gasoline consumption is projected to succeed in a serious “season low” on October 10 and is then projected to pattern increased.

Supply: Bluegold Analysis estimates and calculations

Provide

Manufacturing has decreased as vitality companies have evacuated offshore oil/natgas platforms forward of hurricane Delta, which is forecast to enter the GOM at the moment. Dry gasoline manufacturing is presently estimated at 83.6 bcf/d (-1.3 bcf/d from yesterday).

We presently count on complete provide (manufacturing + imports) within the contiguous United States to common 93.33 bcf/d over the subsequent three months (October-November-December), -9.77 bcf/d y-o-y.

Supply: Bluegold Analysis estimates and calculations

Storage Report

This week, the U.S. Power Info Administration ought to report a smaller change in pure gasoline storage in comparison with the earlier week. We anticipate to see an injection of 71 bcf (1 bcf bigger than comparable determine within the ICE’s newest report for the EIW-US EIA Monetary Weekly Index, 31 bcf smaller than a yr in the past and 15 bcf smaller vs. the 5-year common for this time of the yr). Annual storage “surplus” is projected to shrink by 190 bcf by November 6. The storage “surplus” relative to 5-year common is projected to shrink by 160 bcf over the identical interval (from +390 bcf to +230 bcf).

Supply: Bluegold Analysis estimates and calculations

Thanks for studying this text. We additionally write every day and weekly reviews, protecting key variables in U.S. pure gasoline market (provide, demand, storage, costs and extra). We offer the next to subscribers:
We’re providing a two-week free trial, and we’ll quickly start to cowl international LNG market. Come and be a part of us.

Disclosure: I’m/we’re lengthy NG1:COM. I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. I’m not receiving compensation for it (apart from from Looking for Alpha). I’ve no enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.

window.SA = {“App”:”identify”:”SA”,”fullName”:”Looking for Alpha”,”kind”:”common”,”host”:”https://seekingalpha.com”,”financeApiHost”:”https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com”,”emailHost”:”https://e mail.seekingalpha.com”,”professional”:false,”proPlus”:false,”contributorCenter”:false,”realHostName”:”https://seekingalpha.com”,”isCms”:false,”cancelPV”:false,”isSharkPreview”:false,”usersOnSite”:”9,008,611″,”assetHosts”:[“https://static.seekingalpha.com”,”https://static1.seekingalpha.com”,”https://static2.seekingalpha.com”,”https://static3.seekingalpha.com”],”moneData”:”params”:”news_page=management”,”assetHost”:”https://static.seekingalpha.com”,”userEchoHost”:”https://suggestions.seekingalpha.com”,”unbounceHost”:”https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com”,”env”:”dev”:false,”staging”:false,”manufacturing”:true,”check”:false,”gaAccountId”:”UA-142576245-1″,”pianoAccountId”:”CWJjPp7cpu”,”comscoreAccountId”:8500672,”fbAppId”:”2459764930747368″,”googleClientId”:”853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com”,”twitterAccountName”:”SeekingAlpha”,”rollbarToken”:”5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2″,”perimeterXAppId”:”PXxgCxM9By”,”embedlyKey”:”a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b”,”mp”:false,”chat”:”host”:”https://rc.seekingalpha.com”,”oneSignalAppId”:”32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32″,”gptHeaderTest”:null,”allowAdBlockPopup”:null,”pageConfig”:{“Refresher”:”lively”:false,”Information”:”article”:”id”:4378095,”title”:”Pure Gasoline Market: Manufacturing Falls To A New Multi-12 months Low”,”stub”:false,”primaryTicker”:””,”indexGroup”:null,”prioritizedTicker”:”ung”,”primaryIsCrypto”:null,”isTranscript”:false,”isSlides”:false,”twitContent”:”Pure Gasoline Market: Manufacturing Falls To A New Multi-12 months Low. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378095-natural-gas-market-production-falls-to-new-multi-year-low?supply=tweet “,”isProArticle”:false,”isProPaywall”:false,”paywallReason”:null,”isArchived”:false,”editorsPicks”:false,”inEmbargo”:false,”isAuthorNewsletter”:false,”titleTest”:null,”archiveOn”:0.0,”isProNoEmbargo”:false,”url”:”https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378095-natural-gas-market-production-falls-to-new-multi-year-low”,”isFreeMpArticle”:true,”isInsight”:false,”insightSlug”:””,”price_at_publication”:null,”date_at_publication”:null,”closest_trading_day”:”2020-10-08″,”isArticleInTradingTime”:false,”themes”:[“commodities”,”sa-exclusive”,”alternative-investing”,”article”],”from_liftigniter”:false,”isAnyProArticle”:false,”allowMpPromotion”:true,”article_datetime”:”2020-10-08T03:42:37.000-04:00″,”date_epoch”:”1602129600″,”isEtf”:false,”taggedUrlsHtml”:”u003cspanu003eu003ca href=”https://seekingalpha.com/evaluation/macro-view/all” sasource=”article_navigation”u003eu003cspanu003eMacro Viewu003c/spanu003eu003c/au003eu003c/spanu003e, u003cspanu003eu003ca href=”https://seekingalpha.com/evaluation/macro-view/commodities” sasource=”article_navigation”u003eu003cspanu003eCommoditiesu003c/spanu003eu003c/au003eu003c/spanu003e”,”isFidelityEducationPage”:false,”isSponsored”:false,”contentData”:null,”marketingBullet”:”On the lookout for a serving to hand available in the market? Members of Pure Gasoline Fundamentals get unique concepts and steering to navigate any local weather. u003ca href=”http://information.google.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1160″ sasource=”mp_marketing_text_top”u003eGet began at the moment »u003c/au003e”,”showPastPodcast”:false,”publishDate”:”2020/10/08″,”symbolType”:null,”symbolExchange”:null,”isReit”:null,”accessReason”:false,”excludedByTag”:false,”writer”:”id”:102879,”userId”:36895696,”slug”:”bluegold-research”,”exclusiveResearch”:”title”:”Pure Gasoline Fundamentals”,”short_pitch”:”Prime quality, updated intelligence on U.S. pure gasoline market”,”id”:1160,”tagId”:573198,”identify”:”Bluegold Analysis”,”picture_url”:”https://static.seekingalpha.com/pictures/users_profile/036/895/696/big_pic.png”,”is_brand_author”:false,”show_managed_account”:false,”is_tier1″:false,”feedback”:”discussion_status”:0,”discussion_message”:”Feedback disabled for this text”,”model”:null,”firstResearchAuthor”:”id”:102879,”slug”:”bluegold-research”,”pageType”:”article”,”primaryTickerRtaCount”:”0″,”articleModeratedMsg”:null,”indexTickers”:,”authorSentiment”:[],”themesSubscriprionsCounter”:”daily-dispatch”:”226,209″,”macro-view”:”250,008″,”sectors”:”26,326″,”global-markets”:”55,939″,”wall-st-breakfast”:”712,322″,”investing-ideas”:”294,751″,”etf-content-once-daily-newsletter”:”137,066″,”alternative-energy-once-daily-newsletter”:”107,406″,”transcripts”:”14,331″,”activity-alerts-daily-newsletter”:”3,315,808″,”activity-alerts-weekly-newsletter”:”72,311″,”investing-income”:”228,893″,”tech-daily-newsletter”:”106,670″,”authors-alerts”:”92,588″,”ipo-analysis”:”83,310″,”ma-daily”:”17,897″,”must-read”:”1,472,072″,”Advertisements”:”slots”:[“container”:”article-left-slot-2″,”data”:”name”:”/6001/sek.analysis/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”targeting”:”tile”:160,”size”:[[160,600],”fluid”],”str”:”160×600,fluid”,”container”:”article-left-slot-3″,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:162,”measurement”:[[160,600],”fluid”],”str”:”160×600,fluid”,”delay”:true,”whenOutOfView”:”article-left-slot-2″,”sticky”:true,”container”:”article-right-slot-1″,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:1,”measurement”:[[300,250],[300,600],[300,1050],”fluid”],”str”:”300×1050,300×250,300×600,fluid”,”cls”:”mb25″,”flex”:true,”container”:”article-right-slot-2″,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:100,”measurement”:[[300,100],[300,26],”fluid”],”str”:”300×100,300×26,fluid”,”cls”:”mb25″,”container”:”article-right-slot-3″,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:2,”measurement”:[[300,252],”fluid”],”str”:”300×252,fluid”,”cls”:”mb25″,”native”:true,”container”:”article-middle-slot-1″,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:,”measurement”:[[640,40]],”str”:”640×40″,”container”:”pushdown_top_ad”,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:970,”measurement”:[[970,250],[728,90],”fluid”],”str”:”728×90,970×250,fluid”,”container”:”instream_recommendation_ad”,”information”:”identify”:”/6001/sek.evaluation/market-outlook/commodities”,”disable_collapse_empty_div”:false,”concentrating on”:”tile”:50,”measurement”:[“fluid”],”str”:”fluid”,”delay”:true,”delta”:500],”testScroll”:true,”disabled”:false,”kvs”:”d”:[“analysis”,”macro-view”,”etfs”],”t”:[“market-outlook”,”commodities”,”sa-exclusive”,”alternative-investing”,”article”],”help”:”4378095″,”mp_free_article”:”true”,”a”:”bluegold-research”,”cnt”:[“8″,”36″,”oil”,”fed”,”bny”,”fnk2″,”fnk4″,”NYL1″,”fnk8″,”wf13″,”wf15″,”wf17″,”wf18″,”etr7″,”etr9″,”fnk14t”],”s”:[“ung”,”boil”,”kold”,”fcg”,”gazb”,”unl”,”mlpg”,”ng1:com”],”ab_news_page”:”management”,”Paths”:”int”:”adsAPI”:”src”:”https://static.seekingalpha.com/property/api/ads-6dc275e16edc4a0db49f36ab9256247e90f5a55549bcdf392f688815d7c0decd.js”,”id”:”sa-ads-api”,”ext”:[“src”:”https://www.googletagservices.com/tag/js/gpt.js”,”id”:”gpt”,”src”:”https://js-sec.indexww.com/ht/p/183642-250088771154532.js”,”id”:”ie”,”src”:”https://sb.scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js”,”id”:”sb”,”src”:”https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id=GTM-PFXR76F”,”id”:”gtm”,”src”:”https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js”,”id”:”facebook-jssdk”],”lastRequested”:”2020-10-08 03:42:50 -0400″,”SlugsPrices”:”disabled”:false,”saSource”:null,”identify”:”article”,”useSQuoteSource”:”iex”},”headerConfig”:”noNotificationsMenu”:null,”nonFixed”:null,”tabless”:null,”activeTab”:null,”modules”:,”requires”:[],”trackq”:[],”exceptions”:[],”gptInit”:false};



Supply hyperlink

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.